Washington ESD measurement problems - why unemployment stats don't match reality

Never heard of U-6 vs U-3 before. That explains a lot about why the numbers always seemed too low to me.

The gap between U-3 and U-6 in Washington state is usually about 5-7 percentage points. Shows how many people are really struggling even when official unemployment looks decent.

makes sense why the news always seems behind what's actually happening on the ground

How long is the typical delay between when something happens and when it shows up in the official numbers?

Usually 2-6 weeks depending on the metric. Initial claims data comes out weekly but the unemployment rate calculation takes much longer because it's based on household surveys.

is this legit? sounds too good to be true with how impossible it is to reach washington esd

I was skeptical too but it actually worked. Got connected to a real Washington ESD agent within a few hours instead of spending all day redialing.

Desperate times call for desperate measures I guess. If the state can't handle basic phone capacity that's their problem.

This is a huge issue. Independent contractors often don't qualify for traditional UI benefits but they're not technically employed either. Washington state did extend some coverage during the pandemic but we're back to the old system now.

My cousin drives for Lyft part-time and has been looking for a real job for months. Where does he fit in the unemployment statistics?

probably counted as employed even though he's actively seeking full time work. the whole system is outdated

Excellent point. The geographic aggregation masks serious local problems. Some areas of Washington have been struggling for years but it gets buried in the overall state statistics.

Exactly! I'm in Spokane and our situation is totally different from what the Seattle numbers show.

While I understand the frustration, the methodology is actually set by federal standards that all states follow. Washington ESD doesn't have discretion to change how unemployment is calculated.

They could choose to publish the U-6 numbers more prominently instead of burying them. It's about transparency.

Some states do highlight underemployment more than others in their reporting. Maybe Washington could do better there.

Only 1,500 households? That seems way too small to represent the whole state accurately.

It's based on statistical sampling theory but you're right that it creates uncertainty. The monthly unemployment rate for Washington can fluctuate by 0.2-0.3% just due to sampling variation.

This is another limitation of the current methodology. Long-term unemployment becomes invisible in the standard statistics once benefit eligibility expires.

happened to me last year. still looking for work but no longer 'officially' unemployed according to the government

It's like the problem magically disappears when really it just gets pushed out of sight.

That's a critical point. Inaccurate measurements lead to misallocated resources. Areas with hidden unemployment don't get the support they need.

So the measurement problems create a feedback loop that makes the actual unemployment situation worse over time.

Good point! The administrative requirements and the statistical measurements are completely disconnected.

This highlights how the unemployment insurance system and unemployment measurement serve different purposes even though they should be coordinated.

How much does it cost? If Washington ESD can't handle basic phone service maybe I need to try it too.

Don't remember the exact price but it was worth it to finally talk to someone. Way less frustrating than calling myself hundreds of times.

Seasonal adjustment is especially tricky in a state like Washington with such diverse economic regions. What works for adjusting Seattle numbers might not work for agricultural areas.

The orchard workers in my area get laid off every winter but it's 'seasonal' so doesn't really count as unemployment even though they need work.

The response rates for the household surveys have been declining for decades. Harder to reach people means less accurate data.

Makes sense why the numbers always feel off to people who actually interact with the job market regularly.

This is the underemployment issue again. The standard unemployment rate misses so many forms of economic distress.

story of my life right here. have an engineering degree but working retail because I can't find anything in my field

Exactly! You're counted as successfully employed in the statistics but clearly there's a problem with the job market not matching skills.

This is why you sometimes see initial claims spiking but unemployment rates staying stable temporarily. The different data sources operate on different timelines.

By the time the politicians and news media react to the official numbers, the actual situation has already changed.

Good question. The residence-based surveys should capture them in Washington's numbers, but there's definitely potential for confusion when work crosses state lines.

Never thought about this but it probably affects the numbers in weird ways, especially in border areas.

This is so important. The psychological barriers to employment are real but invisible in all the statistics.

Another way the system fails people. If you can't handle the stress of constant rejection you just disappear from the numbers.

Three people now have mentioned this service. Might be worth trying since calling Washington ESD directly is basically impossible.

If a third-party service works better than the state's own phone system, that tells you everything about how broken the measurement and service delivery problems are.

The household surveys are supposed to count everyone regardless of immigration status, but there's obviously underrepresentation due to fear of government contact.

So the real unemployment numbers could be significantly higher than what gets reported.

This is a huge policy problem that unemployment statistics completely miss. The interaction between different benefit programs creates perverse incentives.

exactly why you can't just look at unemployment numbers to understand if the economy is actually working for people