How are unemployment numbers calculated by Washington ESD?

So my UI claim doesn't automatically make me part of the unemployment rate? That's confusing.

Exactly right. The unemployment rate comes from people surveyed about whether they're actively looking for work, regardless of whether they filed a claim.

I've been trying to find those stats but their website is so hard to navigate. Where exactly do you find the labor market info?

Look for the Employment Security Department's Labor Market and Economic Analysis division. They publish monthly reports with all the claim statistics.

Thanks, I'll check that out. I was getting really confused seeing different numbers everywhere.

This is exactly why I got so frustrated trying to understand my situation. The numbers never made sense until I realized they're measuring completely different things.

Right? And when you're stuck in adjudication for weeks you start wondering if you even count as unemployed anymore according to their systems.

What's the difference between U3 and U6? I keep seeing those mentioned but don't understand what they mean.

U3 is the standard rate - unemployed people actively looking divided by total labor force. U6 includes people who gave up looking and people working part-time but wanting full-time work. U6 is always higher.

So if I'm working 15 hours a week but want full-time, I'd be in U6 but not U3?

Exactly. U6 captures underemployment too, not just unemployment.

That's a great point. For Washington ESD purposes you'd be off their active rolls, but for BLS survey purposes you'd still count as unemployed if you're actively seeking work.

Which explains why sometimes the unemployment rate seems disconnected from what people are experiencing with the UI system.

Yes, you'd be counted in their initial claims filed and pending claims statistics. Washington ESD tracks claims at various stages including adjudication backlogs.

thats something at least. feels like being in limbo when you dont know if you even exist in their system

I feel you on that limbo feeling. When you can't get through to anyone at Washington ESD it's like you don't exist. Have you tried using Claimyr? It's a service that helps you actually reach ESD agents by phone - there's a demo at https://youtu.be/7DieNd3C7zQ and you can check it out at claimyr.com. Might help you get an update on your adjudication status.

never heard of that but willing to try anything at this point. 6 weeks is ridiculous

That makes sense. So ESD data tells you about the claims system performance, while unemployment rate tells you about the overall job market?

Basically yes. ESD data is about their workload and benefit distribution. Unemployment rate is about labor market conditions regardless of who filed claims.

Good point about seasonal adjustments. They smooth out predictable patterns like summer hiring in agriculture or winter layoffs in construction.

Right, so if you're in construction and get laid off every winter, that might not move the seasonally adjusted rate much even though you're definitely unemployed.

This thread has been so helpful. I was getting really confused trying to figure out where I fit in all these different statistics.

Yeah it's definitely not intuitive. The key is understanding what question each statistic is trying to answer.

That's me exactly. I was doing freelance work and don't qualify for regular UI but I'm definitely looking for employment. So I'm unemployed but not in ESD's numbers.

Exactly. The claim statistics only capture people who filed claims, not everyone who's actually unemployed.

Local unemployment can be really different from state averages too. Rural areas vs Seattle metro have completely different job markets.

True, I'm in a smaller town and it definitely feels worse here than the state numbers suggest.

Is that the same service someone mentioned earlier? Might be worth trying if it actually helps you reach someone.

Yeah, same one. The phone queue system at Washington ESD is brutal but this service helped me actually talk to an agent about my specific situation.

Do you know how often they update these different statistics? Some seem more current than others.

Monthly for most statistics, but there are different release schedules. Initial claims are weekly, unemployment rate is monthly, some demographic breakdowns are quarterly.

That's a really clear way to think about it. Administrative vs economic measurement explains why they don't match up perfectly.

Exactly. Washington ESD needs to track their workload and benefit payments. Economists need to track labor market conditions. Different tools for different jobs.

I've heard Claimyr mentioned a few times in this thread. Is it actually worth using or just another way to spend money on something ESD should provide for free?

I mean, ideally ESD would have a functional phone system, but when you need answers and can't get through after dozens of attempts, it becomes worth it. Helped me resolve my adjudication issue much faster.

This whole thread has been incredibly helpful. I feel like I finally understand why all these different unemployment numbers exist and what they actually mean.

Same here. I was getting so frustrated trying to figure out where I fit in all the statistics, but now I see they're measuring different things entirely.

Glad it helped! It's definitely not intuitive and I think a lot of people get confused by the different measurements.