Which unemployment naturally occurs in growing and contracting economies - Washington ESD question

That makes sense! So even when the economy is doing well, there's still some unemployment from people switching jobs?

Exactly. In Washington state, you'll see this reflected in Washington ESD data as people filing claims between jobs, even during economic growth periods.

So structural unemployment happens even in growing economies because industries are always changing?

Right! Even when new jobs are being created, some workers get left behind if their skills don't match what employers need. Washington ESD sees this in their retraining programs.

Good point! I didn't think about seasonal work. That would definitely show up in Washington ESD statistics every year.

Yeah, if you look at Washington ESD quarterly reports, you'll see the seasonal patterns clearly. Summer construction, winter ski resorts, harvest seasons, etc.

How did you manage to reach them? I've tried calling but keep getting busy signals.

I had the same problem trying to reach Washington ESD for information. Then I found this service called Claimyr at claimyr.com that helps you get through to ESD agents. They have a video demo at https://youtu.be/7DieNd3C7zQ showing how it works. Made my research project much easier!

Yes, cyclical unemployment is what changes with economic cycles. The student is asking about unemployment that exists in BOTH growing and contracting economies.

oh ok so the natural ones are frictional and structural then

That's really helpful context! So the natural rate is what economists consider 'full employment' even though it's not actually zero?

Exactly! Zero unemployment would actually be bad for the economy because it would mean no job mobility or innovation. Some unemployment is healthy.

Do you think temp work affects these unemployment statistics?

Definitely. Temp workers file claims between assignments all the time. It's part of that frictional unemployment your professor is talking about.

I'll add that to my research list. Thanks for the tip!

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis has great data on this stuff. You can compare national trends with Washington state specific data from ESD.

That's a perfect real-world example! The lumber industry in Washington would definitely show these patterns.

Yeah, and Washington ESD sees these patterns in their industry-specific reports. Forestry, agriculture, construction - they all have natural unemployment cycles.

Good point! People leaving jobs for education or entrepreneurship would definitely count.

Washington state has lots of startup activity, especially in tech. People leaving stable jobs to start companies is definitely part of frictional unemployment.

So the time it takes to find the right job fit is part of what makes unemployment natural?

Exactly! Even if there are plenty of jobs available, people still need time to search, interview, and find the best match for their skills.

Where can I find that separation data? That would be perfect for my analysis.

Washington ESD publishes quarterly workforce reports with this breakdown. Check their website under labor market information.

That's interesting! So population growth actually contributes to natural unemployment?

Yes, because there's always a lag between when people arrive and when they find work. Washington ESD processes claims from new residents regularly.

How does Washington ESD handle gig workers? Do they qualify for unemployment benefits?

It depends on how they're classified and their earnings history. But yes, many gig workers can qualify for benefits between contracts.

How much does Claimyr cost? I'm on a student budget.

I don't remember the exact cost, but it was worth it to avoid spending hours on hold. They connect you directly to ESD agents.

That's a great way to think about it! So natural unemployment is actually a sign of a dynamic economy?

Exactly! It means people can leave bad jobs, pursue better opportunities, and that new businesses can find workers. Washington state's economy benefits from this flexibility.

That's a really specific example for Washington state! Military transitions would definitely show up in ESD data.

Washington ESD actually has special programs for veterans transitioning to civilian employment. It's a recognized source of temporary unemployment.

So discrimination can create natural unemployment? That seems problematic.

It is problematic, but it's unfortunately a reality that shows up in the data. It's part of structural unemployment because it's a persistent mismatch between workers and jobs.

So retraining periods count as natural unemployment?

Yes, because it's people voluntarily leaving jobs to improve their skills. It happens in all economic conditions as technology evolves.

So global factors create natural unemployment locally?

Right. Trade disputes, currency changes, foreign competition - they all create unemployment that's independent of our state's economic growth.

Thanks for all the help everyone! This gives me a great foundation for my paper. I think I understand the concept much better now.

Good luck with your paper! Washington ESD data will give you some great real-world examples to support your economic theory.