Will my Social Security statement estimates include 2025 COLA increases?
I've been checking my SSA online account and looking at the benefit estimates for when I hit retirement age. I'm planning to file in about 18 months, but I'm confused about something - do the estimated benefit amounts shown in my MySocialSecurity account already include the anticipated COLA for 2025? The numbers seem higher than I expected (which is great!), but I'm wondering if I should actually expect even more once the COLA kicks in next year. I'm trying to finalize my retirement budget and want to make sure I'm using the right figures. Has anyone recently retired and compared their estimates to actual payments?
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Lilah Brooks
The estimates in your MySocialSecurity account do NOT include future COLAs. They're calculated based on current dollars and your earnings history. The 2025 COLA won't be announced until October 2024, and it will apply to benefits starting January 2025. So if you're planning to claim in 18 months, you'll likely see at least one COLA increase added to whatever estimate you're seeing now. I've been through this recently - my actual benefit ended up being about 3.7% higher than my last estimate because of the COLA that happened between when I checked my estimate and when I actually filed.
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Owen Jenkins
•That's really helpful, thank you! So I should expect my actual benefit to be somewhat higher than what's currently showing. That's good news for my budget planning. Any idea what analysts are predicting for the 2025 COLA?
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Jackson Carter
congrats on nearing retirement! i looked at the same thing last yr... the estimates r just based on NOW money, no future colas included. the SSA cant predict future colas since they depend on inflation we havent had yet lol. i retired in jan and got exactly what my estimate said plus the cola they announced in oct
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Owen Jenkins
•Thanks for confirming! Makes sense they can't include inflation they can't predict. Did you find the estimate was pretty accurate otherwise (besides the COLA addition)?
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Kolton Murphy
Your Social Security benefit estimates are calculated based on your earnings history up to the current year and assume you'll continue earning at roughly the same level until you claim benefits. They do NOT include any future COLA increases - these are applied after benefits begin. The estimates also show three different amounts: 1. If you claim at early retirement (62) 2. If you claim at full retirement age (FRA, which varies by birth year) 3. If you delay until age 70 The difference between these numbers is substantial - often 75-80% more if you wait until 70 vs. claiming at 62. Have you considered your optimal claiming strategy?
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Owen Jenkins
•I've been leaning toward waiting until my FRA (66 and 8 months) rather than taking it early. The higher monthly amount seems worth the wait, especially since I'm still working part-time. And you're right, the difference between the numbers is pretty significant!
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Evelyn Rivera
I just went through this! Called SSA to ask the EXACT same question about 3 months ago because I was confused too. And let me tell you, I spent TWO DAYS trying to get through to someone. Kept getting busy signals or disconnected after waiting for hours. So frustrating!!
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Julia Hall
•I had the same awful experience trying to reach them about my disability review. After getting disconnected four times, I found this service called Claimyr (claimyr.com) that got me connected to a real SSA agent in under 20 minutes! They have a video showing how it works: https://youtu.be/Z-BRbJw3puU. Totally worth it when you need actual answers from SSA instead of guessing. The agent confirmed for me that estimates don't include future COLAs, just current dollars based on your earning record.
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Evelyn Rivera
•OMG thank you!! Will definitely check that out next time. I finally got through after days of trying and yes, they confirmed estimates are in today's dollars without future COLAs factored in.
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Arjun Patel
FYI - The Social Security estimates shown in your account are actually pretty conservative in my experience. They assume your earnings will stay constant until retirement, but if you're getting raises or promotions, your actual benefit might be higher. Also, they use your highest 35 years of earnings to calculate benefits. If you don't have 35 years of work history yet, or if your recent earnings are much higher than early in your career, continuing to work could significantly increase your benefit beyond what's shown in the estimate.
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Owen Jenkins
•That's a really good point! I have about 33 years of work history, and my current salary is definitely higher than what I made in my twenties. So working these next 18 months might actually bump up my base calculation too. Double benefit!
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Jade Lopez
NOBODY at SSA can predict future COLAs!!! The numbers in ur account are TODAY'S DOLLARS ONLY!! The COLA changes every year based on some complicated CPI formula and they don't announce it until October for the next year. Last year it was 3.2% but it's been as high as 8.7% (2023) or as low as 0% (2016). Anyone who tells you they know what 2025 COLA will be is LYING!!
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Kolton Murphy
•While it's true that the exact COLA isn't known until officially announced, it's not accurate to say "nobody can predict" it. The COLA is based on the CPI-W from Q3 of the prior year, so economists can make fairly reasonable projections. Current estimates for 2025 COLA are around 2.5-3% based on inflation trends, though that could change over the coming months. It's not a mystery formula - it's quite transparent, just not finalized until October.
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Jade Lopez
•OK FINE but those "projections" are often WRONG and you shouldn't count on them for your retirement!!! Inflation is unpredictable - look at how it exploded in 2022!!! No one saw that coming!
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Owen Jenkins
Thanks everyone for the helpful information! So to summarize: my estimate is in today's dollars, doesn't include future COLAs, and might actually be on the conservative side if I continue working and replace some lower-earning years. I'll plan my budget based on the current estimate but can reasonably expect it might be a bit higher when I actually claim. This community is amazing!
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Lilah Brooks
•Exactly right! And one more tip - when you do decide to file, consider doing it about 3 months before you want benefits to start. The application process can take some time, and while they'll backpay if there's a delay on their end, it's easier to have everything set up in advance. Wishing you a wonderful retirement when the time comes!
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