Social Security retirement estimates on SSA website - do they already include COLA increases?

The retirement estimates shown on your MySocialSecurity account are in today's dollars only. They do NOT include any future COLAs. Those adjustments will be applied annually after you actually start receiving benefits, not during the estimation phase. The SSA has no way to predict future inflation rates, so they present all estimates in current dollar values. This actually makes planning easier because you can compare the purchasing power directly against today's expenses. When you actually claim benefits, your initial benefit amount will be calculated based on the exact formula in place at that time, and then future COLAs will be applied each year after you begin receiving benefits.

WRONG! your SS estimate DOES include predicted COLA increases. My brother works at SSA and told me they build in a standard 2.5% inflation projection into all future estimates!!!

I just wanted to say thanks for asking this question! I was wondering the exact same thing but was too embarrassed to ask. I'm 55 and looking at the same numbers wondering if I should be mentally adding inflation to these figures or not.

This is a common point of confusion. To be absolutely clear: the benefit estimates shown on the SSA website are in current dollars and do NOT include future COLAs. Here's how it works: 1. SSA takes your actual earnings history to date 2. They project your future earnings based on your recent work history 3. They apply the current benefit formula to calculate your Primary Insurance Amount (PIA) 4. They show you what that amount would be at different claiming ages (62, FRA, 70, etc.) All of this is expressed in today's dollars. After you start receiving benefits, you'll get the annual COLA increases. But there's no way for SSA to predict those, so they're not included in estimates. For your financial planning, you might want to factor in some estimated inflation rate to get a better sense of the actual dollar amounts you'll receive in the future.

I was literally just looking at this on my account yesterday and wondering the same thing!!! The numbers seemed too low if they already had COLA in them, but I wasnt sure. Makes way more sense now knowing theyre just current dollars.

If anyone is having trouble getting through to SSA to ask these kinds of questions (their wait times are ridiculous lately), I had success using Claimyr last month. It's a service that holds your place in line and calls you back when an agent is available. Saved me hours of waiting on hold. Their video shows how it works: https://youtu.be/Z-BRbJw3puU and you can find it at claimyr.com. Really helped me sort out a complicated question about my divorced spouse benefits that the website couldn't answer.

Just to add to this - I actually worked with a financial planner who recommended adding an estimated 2.5% per year myself to the SSA estimates when doing retirement planning. That way I could see the actual dollar amounts I might receive in future years. But yeah, the SSA site definitely shows current dollars only with no COLA included in those estimates.

ok so I checked with my brother again and he says I misunderstood him. The BENEFIT CALCULATOR may include projected COLA in some scenarios but the MySocialSecurity estimates do NOT include future COLA. Sorry for the confusion everyone!!

Wait im confused again. So the number I see for age 67 retirement will actually be HIGHER when I actually turn 67 because of all the COLAs between now and then? So like if im 55 now and looking at my age 67 benefit, by the time I actually hit 67 the real dollar amount could be way higher due to 12 years of inflation adjustments?