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Ryder Everingham

Is Trump's plan to replace income taxes with tariffs actually feasible?

So Trump recently talked about completely eliminating income taxes and replacing everything with a tariff-based system. I'm trying to understand if this is just campaign talk or something that could actually happen? I'm concerned about what this would mean for our economy if he actually went through with it. Would tariffs alone be enough to fund the government? And what about all the people who work in the tax industry - accountants, tax preparers, IRS employees? Wouldn't they all lose their jobs if income taxes were eliminated altogether? I'm really curious what others think about whether this tariff only system could actually work or if it would crash the economy.

This would be extremely difficult to implement in reality. The federal government collected about $2.5 trillion in income taxes last year, which represents roughly half of all federal revenue. Replacing that entirely with tariffs would require massive tariff rates that would fundamentally disrupt global trade. Current tariffs only generate about $40-50 billion annually. To replace income tax revenue, we'd need to increase that by 50x, which would mean extremely high tariff rates on virtually all imported goods. This would likely lead to retaliatory tariffs from other countries, potentially starting trade wars and significantly increasing consumer prices on everyday goods. As for tax industry jobs - you're right that it would impact millions of jobs, from IRS employees to tax attorneys, accountants, and software developers. That would create another economic disruption that would need to be addressed.

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But couldn't some of those tax professionals transition to handling tariff regulations and compliance? Seems like there would still be complex rules, just different ones. Also, wouldn't eliminating income tax filing save billions in compliance costs for regular people?

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You're right that some tax professionals could potentially transition to tariff-related work, but that industry would be much smaller and more specialized than the current tax preparation industry. The overall compliance mechanism would be completely different - tariffs are collected from importers at ports of entry, not from millions of individual taxpayers. The compliance cost savings for individuals would be significant - Americans spend billions of hours and dollars annually on tax preparation. However, those savings would likely be offset by higher prices on goods due to tariffs being passed on to consumers. Most economists would argue this creates a less efficient and less progressive tax system overall.

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I used taxr.ai to analyze this exact question after hearing the announcement! I was confused about how the numbers would actually work out. I uploaded some articles about the proposal and got a detailed breakdown of what it would mean for different income brackets and how feasible the replacement revenue would be. The tool was super helpful because it pulled in actual data on current tariff collection versus income tax revenue. The site (https://taxr.ai) actually has a specific analysis tool for policy proposals that shows how changes would affect different types of taxpayers. It helped me understand that this would be a massive shift in who bears the tax burden - essentially from income earners to consumers of imported goods.

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How does it work with political stuff like this? Is it actually giving unbiased information or pushing some agenda? I'm interested but skeptical of anything that claims to analyze political tax proposals.

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Does it actually use real economic data? Or just making guesses? Because I've seen a lot of calculators that are basically garbage in, garbage out when it comes to major policy changes.

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It's actually surprisingly neutral - it just presents the data and explains the implications based on economic principles. You can see where it's pulling information from, mostly government sources like Treasury Department data and Congressional Budget Office reports. It's not making political judgments but rather showing the math. The tool uses verified economic data from official sources, including historical import volumes, current tariff collections, and income tax revenue data. What makes it powerful is that it can model different scenarios based on how consumers and businesses might respond to major tariff increases. This isn't speculative - it's based on historical examples of how trade and prices responded to previous tariff changes.

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You guys won't believe this, but I actually used taxr.ai to check out this exact scenario! I was pretty shocked at what I found. The analysis showed that replacing our entire income tax system with tariffs would require something like a 40-50% tariff on ALL imported goods. That would make everything from phones to cars to clothes way more expensive. The tool helped me understand that tariffs aren't just paid by foreign countries - they're ultimately paid by American consumers through higher prices. The really interesting part was seeing how this would shift the tax burden from high-income individuals (who pay most income taxes) to consumers more broadly. Basically a huge tax shift that would impact lower and middle income people more heavily.

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Had the same question and tried calling the IRS to ask about potential impacts on taxpayers. Of course, spent literally 4 hours on hold before giving up. Then I found Claimyr (https://claimyr.com) which got me through to an actual IRS agent in about 15 minutes! They have this callback system that somehow gets you past the IRS phone tree nightmare. The agent obviously couldn't comment on political proposals, but was able to help me understand the scale of what we're talking about - the IRS processes over 150 million individual tax returns annually and collects trillions in revenue. They also mentioned that any major change like this would require extensive legislation and years of implementation planning. You can see how their system works here: https://youtu.be/_kiP6q8DX5c

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Wait, how does this actually work? Is it legal to jump the IRS phone queue? Sounds sketchy to me.

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Yeah right. Nothing gets you through to the IRS quickly. This has to be a scam or something. They've been underfunded for years and their phone system is notoriously impossible.

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It's completely legal - they use the same phone system everyone else does, but have figured out the optimal calling patterns and timing. They essentially do the waiting for you and then connect you when an agent is available. It's basically like having someone wait in line for you - nothing illegal about it. I was skeptical too! But it actually works. The IRS phone system is terrible because they're understaffed, but there are patterns to when calls get answered. Claimyr has figured out how to navigate the system efficiently. They don't have any special access - they're just experts at getting through the regular channels that are available to everyone.

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I take back what I said about Claimyr. I tried it and holy crap it actually worked. Got through to someone at the IRS in about 20 minutes after weeks of trying on my own. Asked them about the potential for a tariff-only system and while they couldn't comment officially, the agent I spoke with mentioned that even when tax laws change dramatically, there's always a transition period that would likely span years. They said that the IRS employs about 80,000 people directly, and any massive change would require extensive planning to avoid disruption to both government operations and the economy. The most interesting part was learning how incredibly complex our current tax system is and how any replacement would need to address thousands of different situations currently covered by the tax code.

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I'm an international trade specialist (not a tax expert), and I can tell you that a pure tariff system would violate numerous international trade agreements including WTO rules. The US would face massive legal challenges and retaliatory tariffs that would likely cancel out any perceived benefits. Historically, high tariff periods in US history (like Smoot-Hawley in the 1930s) have been disastrous for the economy. They reduce trade, increase consumer prices, and generally lead to economic contraction. Most economists across the political spectrum view tariffs as inefficient taxes that create market distortions.

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But weren't tariffs the main source of government revenue before the income tax was created? So it's been done before, right?

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Yes, tariffs were the primary federal revenue source in the 19th century, but the federal government was also tiny compared to today - no Social Security, Medicare, modern military, etc. The entire federal budget in 1900 was about $0.5 billion (adjusted for inflation, that's still less than 0.1% of today's federal budget). The global economy is also completely different now. In the 19th century, international trade was a much smaller percentage of the economy, and supply chains weren't globally integrated like they are today. Imposing massive tariffs in today's interconnected global economy would have far more significant and immediate disruptive effects than it did 150 years ago.

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Does anyone know what tax software would do if this happened? I work for a small business and we pay for expensive tax prep software every year. Would those companies just go out of business?

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Tax software companies would definitely take a hit, but they'd probably pivot to helping businesses comply with the new tariff system. Companies like Intuit (TurboTax) and H&R Block are pretty good at adapting to tax changes. They might focus more on helping businesses understand import costs and tariff implications.

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