Washington ESD unemployment rate vs full employment - what percent is considered full employment?

Full employment is typically considered to be around 4-5% unemployment rate. This accounts for what economists call 'frictional unemployment' - people who are between jobs, recent graduates looking for work, etc. Washington ESD tracks these numbers monthly.

That makes sense. So even in a 'perfect' economy there would still be some people unemployed at any given time.

Exactly, and Washington's rate has been hovering around 4.2% lately which is pretty close to that full employment target.

The Federal Reserve actually targets around 4% as their definition of full employment. Anything below that and they start worrying about inflation from an overheated labor market. Washington ESD publishes monthly labor force statistics that break this down by county too.

I've been trying to get through to Washington ESD to understand my local job market better but their phone lines are always busy. Anyone have tips for actually reaching someone there?

I had the same problem until I found claimyr.com - they have this service that helps you get through to Washington ESD agents. There's even a demo video at https://youtu.be/7DieNd3C7zQ showing how it works. Saved me hours of redialing.

Thanks! I'll check that out. Getting real data from Washington ESD directly would be way better than guessing from news articles.

Been unemployed for 6 months myself and honestly the 'full employment' numbers feel like BS when you're actually looking for work. Maybe the rate is low but the quality of available jobs is terrible.

I feel you on this. The unemployment rate doesn't tell the whole story about underemployment or people who've given up looking.

That's a valid point. The unemployment rate only counts people actively seeking work. There's also the labor force participation rate which gives a fuller picture.

The Washington State Employment Security Department considers anything under 4.5% to be essentially full employment for our state specifically. They factor in our seasonal industries like agriculture and tourism.

Interesting, so it varies by state based on local economic factors?

Yes, exactly. What works for the national average might not reflect regional realities.

wait isnt full employment when everyone has a job??? why would 4% still be considered full employment

It's because there's always going to be some people transitioning between jobs, new graduates entering the workforce, people moving to new cities, etc. That's called frictional unemployment and it's actually healthy for the economy.

oh ok that makes more sense now

From an economic theory standpoint, full employment is when unemployment equals the Natural Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU). This is typically 4-6% depending on demographic and structural factors in the labor market.

NAIRU is such a wonky acronym but it's actually really important for understanding why we can't just aim for 0% unemployment.

All these economic terms are making my head spin but it's helpful to understand the bigger picture.

I work in workforce development and we typically use 4% as our benchmark for full employment in Washington. When we're below that, employers start having serious trouble finding workers and wage growth accelerates.

That's interesting from the employer side. Do you work with Washington ESD on these metrics?

Yes, we coordinate with Washington ESD monthly on labor market data. They're actually pretty good with data analysis, just hard to reach by phone sometimes.

Speaking of reaching Washington ESD - I tried claimyr after seeing it mentioned here and it actually worked! Got through to an agent in like 20 minutes instead of calling all day.

The unemployment rate is a lagging indicator anyway. By the time it shows problems, we're already deep in a recession. Not super useful for individual job seekers.

True, but it's still helpful for understanding overall economic health and policy decisions.

Yeah I'm more interested in understanding if the current job market is actually good for people like me who've been searching for months.

Different economists define it differently but most agree on 4-5%. The Phillips Curve shows the relationship between unemployment and inflation, and that sweet spot is where they balance out.

The Phillips Curve has been pretty wonky lately though with all the inflation we've had.

Very true, traditional economic models have been challenged by recent events.

Washington's unemployment rate was 4.1% last month according to the latest Washington ESD report. So we're pretty much at full employment right now, at least statistically.

Then why is it still so hard to find decent work? The statistics don't match my experience at all.

Could be a skills mismatch or geographic issue. The jobs might exist but not in your field or location.

That's probably part of it. Most of the openings I see are either way below my experience level or require skills I don't have.

My econ professor always said to look at multiple indicators, not just the unemployment rate. Job openings, wage growth, labor force participation all tell different parts of the story.

Where do you find all those other indicators for Washington state specifically?

Washington ESD publishes most of them in their monthly labor market reports. Bureau of Labor Statistics has the national data.

Been tracking this stuff for my job search strategy. When unemployment gets below 4%, job seekers have more leverage in negotiations. Above 6% and employers get picky.

That's smart thinking. Using the data to time your job search approach.

I never thought about using unemployment rates as part of job search strategy. Interesting angle.

Full employment doesn't mean everyone who wants a job has one - it means everyone who wants a job and is actively looking can find one within a reasonable time frame. Usually defined as 3-6 months.

So at 8 months unemployed, I'm outside that 'reasonable timeframe' even in a full employment economy?

Unfortunately yes, but that could be due to factors beyond just the overall unemployment rate - industry-specific issues, location, skill matching, etc.

Just wanted to follow up on the claimyr thing I mentioned earlier - if anyone needs to talk to Washington ESD about local job market data or unemployment trends, it's definitely worth trying. Way easier than sitting on hold for hours.

Does it cost anything to use?

They have different options but the basic service is pretty reasonable. Check out their site at claimyr.com for details.

The target rate can also shift based on demographic changes. As baby boomers retire, the natural rate of unemployment might decrease because older workers tend to have lower unemployment rates.

That's fascinating - so full employment isn't even a fixed number, it changes with population trends.

This is getting complicated but I appreciate all the different perspectives on what seemed like a simple question.

Bottom line - 4-5% is the general consensus for full employment. Washington is currently at 4.1% so we're technically there. Whether that translates to your individual job search success is a different story entirely.

Thanks everyone for all the insights. Definitely learned a lot about how unemployment statistics work and what they actually mean for job seekers like me.

Good luck with your job search! Don't let the statistics discourage you - persistence pays off.