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Olivia Evans

What rate of unemployment is considered high in Washington state?

I've been laid off for two months now and Washington ESD approved my claim pretty quickly, but I keep hearing conflicting numbers about unemployment rates. Some news articles say our local rate is 'historically high' at 4.8% while others say that's actually not too bad. What unemployment rate is actually considered high? I'm trying to figure out if this means there are fewer jobs available or if I should keep expecting the job market to improve soon. My weekly claims are going fine but the job search requirement is getting harder to meet when I can't tell if employers are actually hiring.

Economists generally consider unemployment rates above 6-7% to be high, though it varies by region. Washington's overall rate is actually relatively low compared to some other states right now.

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That's helpful context. So 4.8% isn't terrible then? I was getting worried about my job prospects.

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depends on what industry you're in too, some sectors are hit way harder than others

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I've been tracking this stuff since I got laid off last year. Anything under 4% is considered really good, 4-6% is normal, and above 6% starts getting concerning. During the 2008 recession it hit over 10% nationally.

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Wow, 10%? That puts things in perspective. Thanks for breaking it down like that.

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Yeah and during COVID it spiked even higher than that briefly. We're in much better shape now comparatively.

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I'm dealing with the same frustration about job searching for my weekly claims. Have you tried using claimyr.com to get through to Washington ESD? I discovered it when I couldn't reach them about my adjudication issue and it actually worked. They have a video demo at https://youtu.be/7DieNd3C7zQ that shows how it helps you connect with agents.

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Never heard of that service. Does it actually help with getting through their phone system?

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Yeah it automates the calling process so you don't have to sit there redialing constantly. Saved me hours of frustration when I needed to talk to someone about my claim status.

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Interesting, might have to check that out. The phone system is absolutely brutal to deal with.

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The 'high' designation also depends on what the rate was previously in that area. If a region usually runs at 3% unemployment and suddenly jumps to 5%, that's a significant increase even though 5% isn't high nationally. Local context matters a lot.

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That makes sense. I should probably look up what the rate was in my county before the layoffs started.

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good point, my area went from like 2.5% to 4.2% so even though its not HIGH its still a jump

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honestly the unemployment rate doesn't tell the whole story anyway. there's people who stopped looking for work that aren't counted, and people working part time who want full time jobs

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You're referring to the U-6 rate which includes discouraged workers and underemployed people. That gives a more complete picture.

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yeah exactly, the regular rate makes things look better than they really are sometimes

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For Washington specifically, our unemployment rate has been relatively stable. The bigger issue is housing costs making it harder for people to take lower-paying jobs while they search.

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That's definitely true. I'm having to be picky about salary ranges because of rent costs.

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Same problem here. Can't afford to take just any job when rent is so expensive in the Seattle area.

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I've been on unemployment twice in the last five years and I swear the job market feels worse now even though the numbers look okay. Maybe it's just more competitive?

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Competition per job opening has increased in many sectors, so you're not wrong about that feeling.

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I'm definitely seeing that too. Getting responses from employers seems harder than it used to be.

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the historical average in the US is around 5-6% so anything below that is actually pretty good. we've just gotten used to really low rates the past few years

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Good to know. So I shouldn't panic about 4.8% then.

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Exactly. That's actually within the range economists consider 'full employment' when you account for normal job transitions.

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Just remember that even if the rate is 'low' it doesn't mean YOUR situation isn't challenging. Individual circumstances matter more than statistics when you're looking for work.

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Very true. Statistics don't pay my bills unfortunately.

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This. You can be the unlucky person struggling even when overall numbers look good.

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Back to the Claimyr thing - I ended up using it again last week when I had questions about my job search log requirements. Much easier than trying to get through the regular Washington ESD phone lines.

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I might actually try that. I've been avoiding calling Washington ESD because the wait times are insane.

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Never used a service like that before but honestly anything beats sitting on hold for hours

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During the Great Depression unemployment hit 25% so really puts our current situation in perspective. Even 10% during 2008 was pretty extreme historically.

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Wow, 25%? I had no idea it got that bad back then.

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Yeah we're nowhere near those crisis levels right now thankfully.

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i think part of the problem is news outlets sensationalize everything. they'll call 4.8% 'soaring' when really its just a normal fluctuation

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Media does tend to use dramatic language about economic indicators. It's important to look at longer-term trends.

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That's probably why I was getting confused about whether the rate was actually bad or not.

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If you're curious about local trends, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes monthly reports that break down unemployment by metropolitan area. Washington's major cities usually track pretty closely with state averages.

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I'll check that out. Probably good to understand the local picture better.

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The BLS website has tons of data if you want to really dig into the numbers

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Been unemployed for 6 months now and honestly the rate doesn't matter much when you're the one looking. Focus on your own search strategy rather than worrying about statistics.

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Good advice. I should probably spend less time reading about unemployment rates and more time applying to jobs.

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Exactly. The numbers are interesting but they don't change what you need to do day to day.

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fwiw washington state usually does better than national averages anyway. tech sector keeps our numbers lower than a lot of other states

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That's reassuring. I'm not in tech but hopefully that helps the overall job market.

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Yeah the tech presence definitely helps stabilize our economy compared to areas more dependent on manufacturing or agriculture.

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Going back to that claimyr service someone mentioned - do they actually help you get through to Washington ESD faster? I've been trying to call about my claim for weeks.

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Yeah it basically handles the redialing for you until you get connected. Check out their demo video to see how it works.

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Thanks, I'm desperate enough to try anything at this point. The hold times are ridiculous.

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The unemployment rate is just one measure anyway. Job quality, wage growth, and hours available matter too. You can have low unemployment but still struggling workers.

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True. I'm seeing a lot of part-time positions that won't pay enough to live on.

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yeah this is what I was getting at earlier. the numbers dont tell the whole story about job market conditions

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I work in workforce development and generally we start getting concerned when local rates hit 6% or higher for extended periods. Anything under 5% is pretty manageable from a policy perspective.

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That's really helpful to know from someone who works in the field. So 4.8% isn't panic territory.

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Thanks for the professional perspective. It's good to hear from someone who deals with these issues directly.

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Bottom line - focus on your own situation rather than getting caught up in the macro numbers. If you need help with your Washington ESD claim or have questions, that's more important than unemployment statistics.

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You're absolutely right. I should worry less about the big picture and more about my own job search.

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This is the best advice in the thread honestly. The statistics are interesting but they don't change your personal situation.

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just wanted to add that seasonal variations matter too. unemployment always goes up in winter in certain industries so timing affects whether a rate looks high or not

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Good point. I hadn't thought about seasonal patterns affecting the numbers.

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Yes, seasonally adjusted rates are more meaningful for year-over-year comparisons.

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