Do I file as a Resident Alien or Dual-Status Alien after moving from US to Canada mid-2024?

Your residency status for 2024 is determined by the facts of 2024 alone, not what you might do in 2025. Since you lived in the US from January-July 2024, you were a US resident for part of 2024, and since you were also a resident in 2023, you'd be considered a resident alien for 2024. For 2025, your status will depend on whether you meet the Substantial Presence Test or have a green card. Typically, if you're in the US for less than 31 days in 2025, you wouldn't meet the SPT. Brief vacation visits generally won't trigger resident status unless they're extensive enough to meet the SPT (183 days using the formula). Publication 519 can be confusing because it references multiple years. The sections you quoted are explaining how your status in one year can affect your treatment in another year, but your 2024 filing status is based on your 2024 circumstances.

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Just wanted to add a practical tip based on my experience: keep detailed records of your days in the US vs Canada. The substantial presence test is based on a formula: days in current year + 1/3 of days in previous year + 1/6 of days in year before that. When I moved to Canada, I thought brief trips back wouldn't count, but they do! Every day matters. I use an app to track my border crossings now because it got confusing fast. Also, the first year after moving is usually the most complicated tax year you'll have.

Don't forget about state residency rules! They're totally separate from federal rules and can be even more complicated. Some states like California are super aggressive about claiming you're still a resident. When I moved to Canada, I had to file a partial year California return even though I was considered a US resident alien for the full year on my federal return. Had to provide proof I'd actually established domicile in Canada (driver's license, housing lease, utility bills).