One important thing to keep in mind: make sure you understand the residency rules for both Colorado and Arizona! This can significantly impact your tax liability in each state. Since you moved mid-year, you'll likely be a "part-year resident" for both states. Each state has different rules about how income is allocated during the part of the year you were a resident vs. non-resident. Some income might be taxable in both states, but you should be able to claim a credit in one state for taxes paid to the other to avoid double taxation.

Thanks everyone for all the helpful suggestions! I'm going to try the state portal option first since it's free, but it's good to know I have backup options with the tax software or taxr.ai if that gets too complicated. Really appreciate all the advice on handling the multiple state situation - definitely feeling less stressed about this now!

Just a practical tip from someone who's been freelancing for years: If your income is growing but unpredictable, you can avoid penalties by paying at least 100% of your previous year's tax liability (or 110% if your AGI was over $150,000). This is called the "safe harbor" rule. For me, I set up automatic quarterly payments through IRS Direct Pay for the minimum safe harbor amount, then just settle up any difference when I file my annual return. Saves me from having to recalculate every quarter.

Has anyone tried using the IRS's own tax withholding estimator for this? I've been wondering if it works for self-employment income too or just W-2 jobs?

Has anyone here had TurboTax reject their return because of incorrect prior year AGI? I'm in a similar situation and I'm worried I'll guess wrong.

The people suggesting to look at 2022 W-2s are correct but dont forget about other income - interest, dividends, unemployment, rental propertes etc. All of this gets included in AGI! Important to look at all your income sources when calculating your portion.

One thing nobody mentioned - check if your departure airport has currency exchange rate guarantees. When I left SFO last year, the Travelex there offered a "rate lock" where they would honor the rate from when I booked online, even if it changed by the time I picked up the currency. Might help with your fluctuation concerns!

I made this exact mistake last year traveling to canada. Had about $9700 USD which was under the 10k USD limit, but the exchange rate put it at like $13k CAD. Border agent was NOT happy when they found out during a random check. Got detained for like 2 hours while filling out forms and answering questions. No fine thankfully but super stressful and missed my connection. 100% recommend just declaring if you're anywhere close to the limit. The declaration form takes like 2 minutes to fill out.

Going back to the original movie question - I think there's a simple explanation that's being overlooked. Money laundering through legitimate businesses. In real life, cash-heavy businesses like restaurants, laundromats, car washes, etc. are often used to "clean" illegal money by mixing it with legitimate income. The character could easily own a legitimate business (maybe a private medical practice?) where he gradually filters in unreported cash by claiming it as patient payments. As long as he pays taxes on this income, the IRS is less likely to investigate the source too deeply. The real challenge would be explaining large asset purchases without documented income history.

I think everyone's overthinking this. The movie is fiction and the writers probably never even considered the tax implications lol. It's like asking how Batman files his taxes without revealing his identity. Sometimes movies just don't make sense with real-world logistics.