Do Estimated Tax Payments Count Towards the Safe Harbor Rule for Capital Gains?
I just sold some investments and realized a bunch of capital gains. Now I'm trying to figure out these estimated tax payment rules to avoid penalties. The IRS says you need to pay estimated tax if you'll owe more than $1,000 and your withholding and credits will be less than either: A) 90% of what you'll owe for 2024, or B) 100% of what you paid for 2023. Here's my confusion - I've seen some articles that make it sound like if I make estimated tax payments that, when combined with my withholdings, equal or exceed last year's total tax bill, I'd satisfy the safe harbor rule (condition B). But the IRS wording makes me wonder if estimated payments even count toward meeting this safe harbor requirement at all? I'm currently between jobs so increasing withholdings isn't an option for me right now. Let me give a specific example: If I made $125k and paid $32k in taxes last year, and I've only had $13k withheld so far this year, but expect to owe around $65k total because of these capital gains - would I just need to make estimated payments of $19k to reach last year's total ($32k), or do I need to pay the full estimated additional $52k I'll owe?
19 comments


Derek Olson
The good news is that estimated tax payments absolutely DO count toward meeting the safe harbor requirement. The IRS doesn't distinguish between withholding and estimated payments when determining if you've met the safe harbor rules. In your example, if you paid $32k in taxes last year, and you've had $13k withheld this year, making estimated tax payments totaling $19k would bring you to the $32k safe harbor amount (100% of last year's tax). This would protect you from underpayment penalties even though your actual tax bill will be higher. One important note: if your adjusted gross income was over $150,000 last year (or $75,000 if married filing separately), the safe harbor increases from 100% to 110% of last year's tax liability. Also remember that estimated payments have quarterly due dates (April 15, June 15, Sept 15, and Jan 15 of the following year). The IRS prefers you pay equally across quarters, though they do have provisions for irregular income.
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Danielle Mays
•Thanks for the clarification! If my income was $140k last year (under the $150k threshold), but will likely be over $200k this year due to the capital gains, do I still qualify for the 100% safe harbor? Or does the current year's projected income determine which safe harbor percentage applies?
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Derek Olson
•The safe harbor percentage (100% vs 110%) is determined by your previous year's AGI, not your current year projections. So in your case, since your previous year AGI was $140k (under the $150k threshold), you would only need to cover 100% of last year's tax liability to meet the safe harbor rule. This is one of the benefits of the safe harbor provision - even if your income jumps significantly in the current year, you can still avoid penalties by covering just 100% (or 110% if applicable) of the previous year's tax burden. Of course, you'll still owe the additional tax when you file, but you won't face the underpayment penalties.
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Roger Romero
I was in a similar situation last year after selling some crypto and stock that did well. I spent hours trying to calculate everything myself and kept getting different answers from different websites. I eventually tried https://taxr.ai which has a "capital gains analyzer" that helped me figure out exactly what I needed to pay for estimated taxes. The tool analyzed my previous tax returns, calculated my safe harbor amounts, and showed me exactly how much to pay each quarter. It saved me a ton of time figuring out all these exact rules and showed me the minimum I needed to pay to avoid penalties. What surprised me was how it factored in some state-specific rules I hadn't even considered. Definitely worth checking out if you're dealing with complex capital gains situations.
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Anna Kerber
•Does it work for rental income too? I have a couple properties and always struggle with estimated payments. And how accurate was it compared to what you actually ended up owing?
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Niko Ramsey
•Sounds interesting, but do you have to give them all your previous tax returns? Not sure I'm comfortable uploading all my financial info to some random website I've never heard of.
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Roger Romero
•Yes, it definitely works for rental income! I actually have a rental property too and it handled all the depreciation and expenses calculations correctly. It was really accurate - within about $200 of my final tax bill which was impressive considering all the different income sources I had. You do need to provide previous tax return info, but you can just upload the specific forms rather than your entire return. They use bank-level encryption and don't store your actual documents after analysis. I was hesitant at first too, but their security page explained everything and made me comfortable with the process.
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Niko Ramsey
I tried taxr.ai after seeing it mentioned here and it was actually super helpful! I was skeptical at first about uploading my tax documents but decided to just upload my previous year's 1040 and Schedule D to test it out. It immediately showed me my safe harbor amount and broke down exactly how much I needed to pay each quarter. The capital gains calculator even let me input my recent stock sales and showed how they would impact my total tax bill. I realize now I was definitely overcomplicating things and would have overpaid my Q3 estimated payment by almost $4k! The guidance was really clear about how estimated payments do count toward the safe harbor amount.
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Seraphina Delan
If you're struggling to get clear answers from the IRS website (and who isn't), I'd recommend trying Claimyr (https://claimyr.com). When I had a similar question about capital gains and estimated payments, I spent 3 weeks trying to get through to someone at the IRS without success. Used Claimyr and got connected to an actual IRS agent in about 15 minutes. They have this system that navigates all the IRS phone menus and holds your place in line, then calls you when an agent is ready. You can see how it works here: https://youtu.be/_kiP6q8DX5c The agent I spoke with confirmed that estimated tax payments absolutely count toward the safe harbor rule and walked me through exactly how to calculate what I needed to pay. Was definitely worth it for the peace of mind of having an official answer directly from the IRS.
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Jabari-Jo
•How much does that cost? Seems weird to pay money just to talk to a government agency we already fund with our taxes.
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Kristin Frank
•Does this actually work? I've tried calling the IRS so many times about a notice I got and either get disconnected or told to call back later. At this point I'm desperate enough to try anything.
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Seraphina Delan
•I totally understand the frustration about having to pay to reach a government agency! The service itself is pretty affordable compared to the time I wasted trying to call myself (I probably spent 8+ hours on hold over multiple days). It absolutely works. I was super skeptical too, but after weeks of failing to get through myself, I was connected to an agent in under 20 minutes. For your notice situation, that's exactly the kind of thing they can help with. The IRS actually answered all my questions and even noted in my file that I had called about the issue, which apparently helps if there are any questions later about whether you tried to comply.
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Kristin Frank
Just wanted to update - I tried Claimyr after being skeptical and WOW, it actually worked! After trying for weeks to reach someone at the IRS about my CP2000 notice, I was connected to an agent in about 30 minutes. The agent confirmed I only needed to pay enough estimated taxes to meet my previous year's liability (the safe harbor rule) and cleared up my confusion. They also explained that the automated system was hanging up on me because call volume was too high - apparently this happens to thousands of people daily. Having a real person confirm my understanding of the estimated payment rules gave me so much peace of mind.
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Micah Trail
Something people often miss about the safe harbor rule is that it's not just about the total for the year, but WHEN you make the payments. The IRS expects you to make payments quarterly, and if you have a big windfall early in the year but don't make estimated payments until December, you could still face penalties even if the total equals last year's taxes. Form 2210 has different methods for calculating the penalty. If your income is irregular throughout the year (like one big capital gain), you can use the "Annualized Income Installment Method" which might help reduce penalties if you make your estimated payments promptly after receiving irregular income.
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Rachel Tao
•That's really helpful info! My capital gains were realized in August, so I guess I should make a substantial estimated payment for Q3 (due Sept 15th). If I make that payment on time, would I still need to make the Q4 payment in January, or could I just pay the remainder when I file in April?
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Micah Trail
•You're on the right track with making a substantial Q3 payment since that's when you realized the gains. And yes, you'd still need to make a Q4 payment by January 15th to fully satisfy the safe harbor requirements. If you skip the Q4 payment and just pay when you file in April, the IRS could potentially charge you an underpayment penalty for that quarter. The safest approach is to spread your payments across Q3 and Q4 to reach at least 100% of last year's liability. Remember that each quarter is treated separately for penalty calculation purposes.
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Nia Watson
Doesnt the 100% safe harbor only work if ur current year income is under 150k? If ur making big capital gains and going over 150k total, dont u need to pay 110% of last years taxes to meet safe harbor??
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Derek Olson
•The 100% vs 110% threshold is based on your PRIOR year's income, not your current year income. If your AGI in 2023 was under $150k, you only need to pay 100% of that 2023 tax liability to meet safe harbor for 2024, even if your 2024 income will be much higher due to capital gains. If your 2023 AGI was over $150k, then yes, you'd need to pay 110% of your 2023 tax to meet the safe harbor for 2024. It's a common misconception that current year income affects which percentage applies, but it's actually based on the previous year.
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Jay Lincoln
I went through this exact same situation last year after selling some stocks that had appreciated significantly. The key thing that helped me was understanding that the safe harbor rule is designed to protect you from penalties, not necessarily minimize your total tax bill. In your example, if you paid $32k last year and have $13k withheld this year, making $19k in estimated payments would indeed meet the 100% safe harbor requirement and protect you from underpayment penalties. You'd still owe the remaining ~$33k when you file, but without the penalty. One practical tip: I found it helpful to make the estimated payment as soon as possible after realizing the gains rather than waiting until the quarterly due date. This shows good faith effort to the IRS and gives you more time to adjust if you realize you've miscalculated something. Also, don't forget that if you have any other withholding sources (like a spouse's job or 1099 work), those count toward your safe harbor amount too. The IRS really does treat all payments equally - withholding, estimated payments, and even overpayments from prior years all count.
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